The 2024 Indianapolis 500 is set for Sunday on the 2.5-mile Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval, with the 2024 Indy 500 starting lineup featuring 11 rows of three drivers. Scott McLaughlin, Will Power and Josef Newgarden are on the first row following two days of 2024 Indy 500 qualifying. McLaughlin is the +450 (risk $100 to win $450) favorite in the 2024 Indy 500 odds after breaking the four-lap qualifying record with an average of 234.220 mph. He is followed by Newgarden (+500), the defending champion, and NASCAR star Kyle Larson (+650) in the 2024 Indianapolis 500 odds.
Larson qualified fifth and is making his Indy 500 debut before racing in the 2024 Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte later in the day. Should you include him in your 2024 Indy 500 bets? Before scouring the 2024 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2024 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot during the 2023 NASCAR season, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
It also called its first victory of the 2024 season with Larson winning again in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout then predicted a Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021 too and called all 19 of Max Verstappen's wins in Formula 1 last season. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 NASCAR winners since 2021 and hit nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Indianapolis 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2024 Indy 500 leaderboard.
Top 2024 Indianapolis 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Kyle Kirkwood, even though he's a +2500 long shot in the latest 2024 Indianapolis 500 odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Kirkwood has been consistently improving since he became a full-time IndyCar Series driver in 2022, when his best finish was 10th at Long Beach for A.J. Foyt Enterprises.
He returned to the Andretti Autosport stable for the 2023 season, replacing Alexander Rossi. Kirkwood picked up his first IndyCar win at the 2023 Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach and added a second win at the 2023 Music City Grand Prix. While he is still seeking his first win of the 2024, he has posted three top-10 finishes and ranks eighth in the points standings, so the model thinks a breakthrough win is right around the corner.See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Scott McLaughlin, the top Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values on the 2024 Indy 500 starting grid. A 30-year-old from New Zealand, McLaughlin joined IndyCar in 2021 after winning three consecutive Supercars Championships, a popular touring car racing series in Australia and New Zealand.
McLaughlin finished 14th in the IndyCar standings his rookie season before finishing fourth in 2022 and third in 2023. However, he hasn't seriously contended in the Indy 500, finishing 20th, 29th and 14th in three previous starts at The Brickyard. He's also been somewhat inconsistent in 2024, finishing outside the top 25 in two of his previous four starts this season.See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Indianapolis 500 picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 Indy 500 odds longer than +1500 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's Indy 500 projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Indy 500 2024? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2024 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted 18 NASCAR winners since 2021 and called every Max Verstappen win in F1 in 2023.
2024 Indianapolis 500 odds
See full 2024 Indy 500 picks at SportsLine
Scott McLaughlin +450
Josef Newgarden +500
Kyle Larson +650
Will Power +650
Pato O'Ward +900
Alexander Rossi +1000
Alex Palou +1100
Rinux VeeKay +1600
Scott Dixon +1600
Colton Herta +1800
Santino Ferrucci +2000
Felix Rosenqvist +2500
Kyle Kirkwood +2500
Takuma Sato +3500
Helio Castroneves +3500
Ryan Hunter-Reay +4000
Christian Rasmussen +5000
Marco Andretti +5000
Callum Ilott +6000
Linus Lundqvist +6000
Marcus Armstrong +6500
Christian Lundgaard +7500
Ed Carpenter +7500
Kyffin Simpson +7500
Marcus Ericsson +8000
Graham Rahal +10000
Romain Grosjean +10000
Conor Daly +10000
Augustin Canapino +20000
Sting Ray Robb +20000
Pietro Fittipaldi +30000
Tom Blomqvist +35000
Katherine Legge +50000
Indianapolis 500 starting grid
Row 1- Scott McLaughlin, Will Power, Josef Newgarden
Row 2- Alexander Rossi, Kyle Larson, Santino Ferrucci
Row 3- Rinus VeeKay, Pato O'Ward, Felix Rosenqvist
Row 4- Takuma Sato, Kyle Kirkwood, Ryan Hunter-Reay
Row 5- Colton Herta, Alex Palou, Callum Ilott
Row 6- Marcus Armstrong, Ed Carpenter, Kyffin Simpson
Row 7- Marco Andretti, Helio Castroneves, Scott Dixon
Row 8- Agustin Canapino, Sting Ray Robb, Christian Rasmussen
Row 9- Tom Blomqvist, Romain Grosjean, Linus Lundqvist
Row 10- Christian Lundgaard, Conor Daly, Pietro Fittipaldi
Row 11- Katherine Legge, Marcus Ericsson, Graham Rahal
